{"id":241475,"date":"2020-11-06T16:13:59","date_gmt":"2020-11-06T13:13:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alegria-realestate.com\/?p=241475"},"modified":"2025-08-14T21:26:12","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T18:26:12","slug":"ruble-investments-is-it-worth-keeping-money-in-rubles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alegria-realestate.com\/cs\/articles\/ruble-investments-is-it-worth-keeping-money-in-rubles","title":{"rendered":"Ahoj, ruble, jak se m\u00e1\u0161? \u2013 cel\u00e1 pravda o investic\u00edch v rublech"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

V \u010dem je lep\u0161\u00ed dr\u017eet pen\u00edze \u2013 v rublech nebo v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b? Mo\u017en\u00e1 stoj\u00ed za to koupit nemovitost nebo investovat pen\u00edze do akci\u00ed rusk\u00fdch nebo zahrani\u010dn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed? Na tyto a dal\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zky v\u00e1m jednoduch\u00fdm a srozumiteln\u00fdm jazykem odpov\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed poradce ze spole\u010dnosti \u201eAlegria\u201c a jako p\u0159\u00edklad uvede re\u00e1lnou situaci ze sv\u00e9ho \u017eivota.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Dnes bych cht\u011bl mluvit o investic\u00edch v rublech. Jde o to, \u017ee od doby, kdy jsem se p\u0159est\u011bhoval do \u0160pan\u011blska, uplynulo 8 let a m\u011b napadlo, co by se stalo s m\u00fdm kapit\u00e1lem, kdybych si nekoupil nemovitost ve \u0160pan\u011blsku, ale rozhodl se investovat na akciov\u00e9m nebo dluhopisov\u00e9m trhu rusk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed nebo nap\u0159\u00edklad otev\u0159el vklad v rublu v bance. Sv\u016fj v\u00fdzkum budu prov\u00e1d\u011bt na z\u00e1klad\u011b dat z otev\u0159en\u00fdch zdroj\u016f a v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry podpo\u0159\u00edm statistick\u00fdmi informacemi. Nebudu prov\u00e1d\u011bt hlubokou anal\u00fdzu, proto\u017ee \u00fa\u010delem tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku je prost\u00fd lidsk\u00fd z\u00e1jem. \"Ahoj, Za\u010dn\u011bme mal\u00fdm pozad\u00edm. V roce 2010 jsem prodal ve\u0161ker\u00fd sv\u016fj majetek v Rusku a m\u011bl jsem kapit\u00e1l 500 tis\u00edc eur nebo 20 000 000 rubl\u016f p\u0159i kurzu 40. V t\u00e9 dob\u011b jsem zast\u00e1val solidn\u00ed pozici vrcholov\u00e9ho mana\u017eera jedn\u00e9 z moskevsk\u00fdch komer\u010dn\u00edch bank. \u010c\u00e1st pen\u011bz jsem proto vlo\u017eil do depozitu v rublech a druhou \u010d\u00e1st do depozitu v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b. V roce 2012 jsem se rozhodl zm\u011bnit sv\u00e9 bydli\u0161t\u011b a p\u0159e\u0161el na \u201edownshift\u201c na trval\u00e9 bydli\u0161t\u011b ve \u0160pan\u011blsku<\/a> . V d\u016fsledku toho jsem se rozhodl koupit d\u016fm pro sebe a byt pro turistick\u00fd pron\u00e1jem<\/a> ve \u0160pan\u011blsku<\/a> za vlastn\u00ed pen\u00edze za celkem 500 tis\u00edc eur. Ud\u011blal jsem ale spr\u00e1vn\u011b, kdy\u017e jsem sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze investoval do nemovitost\u00ed? Mo\u017en\u00e1 by bylo lep\u0161\u00ed ponechat je v rublech a investovat je na dom\u00e1c\u00edm trhu? Tuto ot\u00e1zku si klade mnoho lid\u00ed. Poj\u010fme na to spole\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ij\u00edt.<\/p>\n

Inflace je tich\u00fd nep\u0159\u00edtel investora<\/h2>\n

Nejprve se pod\u00edvejme, co by se stalo s m\u00fdmi pen\u011bzi, kdybych je nechal le\u017eet na b\u011b\u017en\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu. Za 9 let byl index inflace 70,27 %. co to znamen\u00e1? A to, \u017ee by se mi pen\u00edze o toto procento znehodnotily. \"\" Co to znamen\u00e1 v praxi? Nap\u0159\u00edklad byt v Rusku, kter\u00fd jsem si v roce 2010 mohl koupit za 20 milion\u016f rubl\u016f, by m\u011b v roce 2020 st\u00e1l 34 milion\u016f rubl\u016f! To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee bych ztratil 14 milion\u016f rubl\u016f. Hrozn\u00e9, \u017ee? Ale mysl\u00edm si, \u017ee to je utopick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad, a to se prost\u011b st\u00e1t nem\u016f\u017ee, proto\u017ee pen\u00edze mus\u00ed fungovat.<\/p>\n

M\u011bna \u2013 na\u0161e v\u0161echno?<\/h2>\n

Vy\u0159e\u0161ili jsme inflaci, nyn\u00ed se pod\u00edvejme na dynamiku sm\u011bnn\u00e9ho kurzu, abychom pochopili, jak se zm\u011bnila hodnota na\u0161eho \u201edrah\u00e9ho\u201c rublu ve vztahu k euru. Mohl bych vyd\u011blat na kurzov\u00e9m rozd\u00edlu a hlavn\u011b kolik? Po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed \u00fadaje jsou tedy stejn\u00e9: 20 milion\u016f rubl\u016f a stejn\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed. \"\" Za posledn\u00edch 10 let se toho stalo hodn\u011b: m\u011bnov\u00e1 krize v roce 2014, anexe Krymu, \u201eochlazen\u00ed\u201c vztah\u016f s Evropou a USA na pozad\u00ed sankc\u00ed a nyn\u00ed koronavirus. To v\u0161e nemohlo ovlivnit na\u0161i surovinovou ekonomiku. Poka\u017ed\u00e9 dopadla r\u00e1na nejprve na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnu a v d\u016fsledku toho se rubl za 10 let znehodnotil o 127 %. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee kdybych te\u010f m\u011bl sv\u00fdch 20 milion\u016f, mohl bych si koupit jen 218 tis\u00edc eur! Ale kdybych si po cel\u00fdch t\u011bch 10 let nechal sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze v eurech, pak bych v rublech vyd\u011blal asi 56 %, pro\u010d tomu tak je? Je to jednoduch\u00e9: sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz se samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161il o 127 %, ale inflace 70,27 % nebyla zru\u0161ena…<\/p>\n

Uchov\u00e1vejte sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze ve spo\u0159iteln\u011b <\/h2>\n

\"Ahoj, Dob\u0159e, \u0159ekn\u011bme, \u017ee jsem se rozhodl nechat v\u0161e tak, jak je, a d\u00e1t v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze na bankovn\u00ed \u00fa\u010det s \u00faroky. Zaj\u00edmalo by m\u011b, jestli bych mohl dohnat nebo dokonce dr\u017eet krok s m\u00edrou inflace? Poj\u010fme na to p\u0159ij\u00edt. Zde budeme pot\u0159ebovat 2 grafy. Prvn\u00ed uk\u00e1\u017ee pom\u011br m\u00edry inflace k \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m z vklad\u016f a druh\u00fd uk\u00e1\u017ee dynamiku r\u016fstu v\u00fd\u0161e vkladu s kapitalizac\u00ed \u00farok\u016f. \"\"\"\" Z prvn\u00edho grafu vid\u00edme, \u017ee ne v\u0161echno je tak \u0161patn\u00e9 a pacient je sp\u00ed\u0161e na\u017eivu ne\u017e mrtv\u00fd. Vezmeme-li za z\u00e1klad aritmetick\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br, vyjde n\u00e1m, \u017ee pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 m\u00edra inflace za 10 let bude 6,2 % a pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 sazba z vklad\u016f 7,5 %. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee ulo\u017een\u00edm pen\u011bz na vklad bychom je mohli alespo\u0148 ochr\u00e1nit p\u0159ed inflac\u00ed. Ale je v\u0161echno tak dobr\u00e9? Abychom to zjistili, pot\u0159ebujeme druh\u00fd graf. Zde vid\u00edme ide\u00e1ln\u00ed situaci, kdy jsem p\u0159ed 10 lety vlo\u017eil pen\u00edze do banky a nikdy je nevybral, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jsem smlouvu obnovil za aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu. V d\u016fsledku toho byly v\u0161echny \u00faroky kapitalizov\u00e1ny a na konci obdob\u00ed jsem obdr\u017eel 44,11 milion\u016f rubl\u016f. Je to dobr\u00e9?<\/strong> Na jednu stranu ano, proto\u017ee jsem p\u0159ekonal m\u00edru inflace o 10 milion\u016f rubl\u016f, to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jsem vyd\u011blal pen\u00edze. Poj\u010fme si v\u0161ak spo\u010d\u00edtat, kolik eur si mohu za tyto pen\u00edze v tuto chv\u00edli koupit. A pak si uv\u011bdom\u00edm, \u017ee jsem nevyd\u011blal, ale zase prohr\u00e1l. Za 44 115 977 rubl\u016f a 39 kopejek, co\u017e je \u010d\u00e1stka, kterou bych vyd\u011blal za 10 let bankovn\u00edho vkladu, si nyn\u00ed mohu koupit pouze 482 141,82 eur. Dovolte mi, abych v\u00e1m p\u0159ipomn\u011bl, \u017ee zpo\u010d\u00e1tku jsem m\u011bl 500 tis\u00edc eur. Tak\u017ee za 10 let bych p\u0159i\u0161el o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 18 tis\u00edc eur. Vklad byl a z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejkonzervativn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed investic\u00ed, kter\u00e1 v\u00e1m pom\u016f\u017ee pen\u00edze sp\u00ed\u0161e u\u0161et\u0159it ne\u017e vyd\u011blat.<\/p>\n

M\u00e1m koupit Gazprom?<\/h2>\n

Vy\u0159e\u0161ili jsme inflaci, m\u011bnu a vklady. Zaj\u00edmalo by m\u011b, co by se stalo, kdybych vlo\u017eil 20 milion\u016f rubl\u016f do akci\u00ed rusk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed? Zde n\u00e1m pom\u016f\u017ee index Moskevsk\u00e9 burzy. Ch\u00e1pu, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla a z vlastnictv\u00ed akci\u00ed bych dostal n\u011bjak\u00e9 dividendy, kter\u00e9 by v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku zv\u00fd\u0161ily pod\u00edl na zisku, ale nesm\u00edme zapom\u00ednat na rizika poklesu hodnoty a ztr\u00e1t na spekulac\u00edch atp. Tak\u017ee pou\u017eijeme pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 data, a to je to, co jsem dostal. \"\" Existuje r\u016fst, a to u\u017e je dobr\u00e9, ale kolik bych v pr\u016fm\u011bru vyd\u011blal investov\u00e1n\u00edm sv\u00fdch pen\u011bz do akci\u00ed rusk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed? Odpov\u011b\u010f:<\/em> p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 95 % do 10 let. Je to dobr\u00e9?<\/strong> ano i ne. Za prv\u00e9, ur\u010dit\u011b bych vyd\u011blal v\u00edce s p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k v\u00fdplat\u00e1m dividend, kter\u00e9 jsou u rusk\u00fdch akci\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b velk\u00e9. Za druh\u00e9 bych p\u0159ekonal m\u00edru inflace, proto\u017ee za 10 let to bylo jen 70 % a vyd\u011blal bych minim\u00e1ln\u011b 95 %, tak\u017ee m\u016fj \u010dist\u00fd zisk by byl asi 25 %. \"\" "Pro\u010d je to \u0161patn\u00e9?"<\/strong> \u2013 pt\u00e1te se. Pro za\u010d\u00e1tek je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee popsan\u00e1 situace je ide\u00e1ln\u00ed. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, p\u0159ed 10 lety jsem koupil portfolio akci\u00ed a nikdy je neprodal, co\u017e je vz\u00e1cnost. V j\u00e1dru je akciov\u00e9 portfolio \u201e\u017eiv\u00fdm organismem\u201c, kter\u00fd se m\u011bn\u00ed, kupuje a prod\u00e1v\u00e1. Udr\u017eovat stejn\u00e9 portfolio 10 let je nesmysl, to se nest\u00e1v\u00e1. A pokud se tak nestane, v\u00fdpo\u010dty nejsou zcela spr\u00e1vn\u00e9. B\u011bhem t\u011bchto 10 let jsem mohl snadno n\u011bco ztratit spekulacemi nebo t\u00edm, \u017ee bych podlehl panice na burze. No pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed: kdybych investoval do akci\u00ed americk\u00e9ho akciov\u00e9ho trhu, mohl jsem vyd\u011blat mnohem v\u00edce, asi 286 % za stejn\u00fdch 10 let, ale v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b a s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm infla\u010dn\u00edm indexem.<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Pro informaci:<\/strong> m\u00edra inflace v USA za posledn\u00edch 10 let byla pouze 19 % ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se 70,27 % v Rusku.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Investov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u0161ech sv\u00fdch pen\u011bz do americk\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f bych tedy z\u00edskal zisk 10kr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e podobn\u00e1 aktiva v rublech. \"\"<\/p>\n

    M\u00edsto epilogu<\/h2>\n

    Prvn\u00ed.<\/strong> Dr\u017eet pen\u00edze v rublech je jako zlo\u010din. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by se s dlouhodob\u00fdmi investicemi do rubl\u016f m\u011blo zach\u00e1zet opatrn\u011b a je lep\u0161\u00ed je prost\u011b ned\u011blat. Rusk\u00e9 surovinov\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed bude pod neust\u00e1l\u00fdm \u00fatokem, co\u017e se projev\u00ed na \u00farovni inflace a kupn\u00ed s\u00edle n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bny. Situace se m\u016f\u017ee ob\u010das zlep\u0161it, pokud glob\u00e1ln\u00ed popt\u00e1vka a ceny energi\u00ed porostou. Druh\u00fd.<\/strong> Rubl bude nad\u00e1le oslabovat, a to je jasn\u00fd postoj rusk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky. V podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho deficitu je pokles sm\u011bnn\u00e9ho kurzu n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bny jedin\u00fdm efektivn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, jak jej naplnit. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee sta\u010d\u00ed jednodu\u0161e dr\u017eet pen\u00edze v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b a ji\u017e jste poji\u0161t\u011bni proti mnoha rizik\u016fm, nikoli v\u0161ak inflaci. Optim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed se zde zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed prost\u0159edk\u016f v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b na depozitn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dty, ale rusk\u00fd bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m nen\u00ed 100% spolehliv\u00fd a syst\u00e9m poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vklad\u016f pln\u011b nechr\u00e1n\u00ed investory v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b. [toto m\u00edsto] Za t\u0159et\u00ed.<\/strong> Akciov\u00fd trh m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt skv\u011blou alternativou k dlouhodob\u00e9mu investov\u00e1n\u00ed, ale je to jeden z nejrizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u016f pro nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed kapit\u00e1lu. Bez zku\u0161enost\u00ed a pochopen\u00ed proces\u016f sp\u00ed\u0161e ztrat\u00edte ne\u017e z\u00edsk\u00e1te a pomoc kvalifikovan\u00fdch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f stoj\u00ed pen\u00edze a nen\u00ed v\u017edy opodstatn\u011bn\u00e1. Pokud se chyst\u00e1te investovat do cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f, tak pouze do ciz\u00ed m\u011bny a sp\u00ed\u0161e do dluhopis\u016f ne\u017e do akci\u00ed. Co se tedy stalo s cenami nemovitost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsem koupil ve \u0160pan\u011blsku? Za posledn\u00edch 10 let se ceny nemovitost\u00ed na pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Costa Blanca zv\u00fd\u0161ily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 15 %. P\u0159itom m\u00edra inflace v Evropsk\u00e9 unii za 8 let \u010dinila pouze 10,21 %. Nakonec jsem u\u0161et\u0159il sv\u00e9 \u00faspory a trochu vyd\u011blal. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee mi byt p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjem, bude moje skute\u010dn\u00e1 ziskovost mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. \"\" Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b jsem mohl vyd\u011blat v\u00edce investov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u0161ech sv\u00fdch pen\u011bz do bitcoinu, akci\u00ed Facebooku nebo Tesly, ale i mal\u00fd p\u0159\u00edjem, kter\u00fd jsem z\u00edskal z investic do zahrani\u010dn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed, m\u011b ochr\u00e1nil p\u0159ed silnou ruskou inflac\u00ed a propadem kupn\u00ed s\u00edly rublu. Nemovitosti byly, jsou a budou jednou z nejspolehliv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch metod uchov\u00e1n\u00ed kapit\u00e1lu a investov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

      \n
    • Se v\u0161emi dotazy ohledn\u011b investic se m\u016f\u017eete obr\u00e1tit na na\u0161eho specialistu Andrey Samylin.<\/li>\n
    • Andrej Samylin\n
        \n
      • Obchodn\u00ed mana\u017eer, investi\u010dn\u00ed poradce<\/li>\n
      • +34 664 25 76 97<\/li>\n
      • andrey@alegria-realestate.com<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

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        V \u010dem je lep\u0161\u00ed dr\u017eet pen\u00edze \u2013 v rublech\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":241485,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,953],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-241475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-investment"],"yoast_head":"\n\u0420\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0446\u0438\u0438: \u0441\u0442\u043e\u0438\u0442 \u043b\u0438 \u0445\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0434\u0435\u043d\u044c\u0433\u0438 \u0432 \u0440\u0443\u0431\u043b\u044f\u0445, \u0438 \u043a\u0430\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0435\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0430\u043b\u044c\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432\u044b<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u0421\u0442\u043e\u0438\u0442 \u043b\u0438 \u0445\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0434\u0435\u043d\u044c\u0433\u0438 \u0432 \u0440\u0443\u0431\u043b\u044f\u0445 \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043d\u0443\u0436\u043d\u043e \u043e\u0442\u0434\u0430\u0442\u044c \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043f\u043e\u0447\u0442\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442\u0435? 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